Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 20.684774 24.918264 29.604110 35.148510 41.501552 48.525371 56.848694
2025-03-02 13.933518 19.276496 25.837649 34.368674 45.038847 57.809647 74.103137
2025-03-09 10.433100 16.129249 23.716153 34.304725 48.414030 66.263097 90.204056
2025-03-16 7.537821 12.959857 20.751932 32.345828 48.676834 70.337540 100.630247
2025-03-23 6.291271 11.812779 20.252977 33.461567 52.878481 79.565520 118.057241
2025-03-30 4.984367 10.254898 18.833913 32.949301 54.576821 85.327622 130.983874
2025-04-06 4.392320 9.748368 18.924135 34.634842 59.497086 95.779536 150.843937
2025-04-13 3.245755 7.971495 16.628808 32.226978 57.932634 96.672448 157.062337
2025-04-20 2.769413 7.366125 16.234144 32.837663 61.033059 104.532808 173.663199
2025-04-27 2.410639 6.916754 16.040475 33.734655 64.606161 113.240322 191.858148
2025-05-04 2.137768 6.590348 16.020839 34.908440 68.676374 122.875029 211.819016
2025-05-11 1.850744 6.157738 15.719263 35.512985 71.786863 131.106893 229.927074
2025-05-18 1.496726 5.500902 14.941302 35.311016 73.797466 138.189195 247.423623
2025-05-25 1.164446 4.791926 13.934030 34.565483 74.833802 143.842713 263.143048
2025-06-01 0.939125 4.302226 13.317238 34.503738 77.066321 151.558685 282.471794
2025-06-08 0.671536 3.547206 11.893800 32.535790 75.509880 152.678429 291.013196
2025-06-15 0.581981 3.373950 11.897782 33.656803 79.954956 164.392892 317.570808
2025-06-22 0.452612 2.977530 11.219506 33.142125 81.108050 170.324993 334.613614
2025-06-29 0.409094 2.921952 11.480399 34.835578 86.820639 184.679899 366.525310
2025-07-06 0.275204 2.354498 10.105670 32.416388 83.855821 183.074413 370.847895
2025-07-13 0.230126 2.203075 9.968150 33.029961 87.294339 193.429676 396.389088
2025-07-20 0.196787 2.094531 9.945411 33.931176 91.405372 205.216004 424.855229
2025-07-27 0.172006 2.021103 10.025880 35.110454 96.196484 218.485206 456.392673